Key Events In The Coming Week: All Eyes On Inflation And Retail Sales


This week’s post payrolls data calendar is pretty modest: the US reports consumer credit today, small business optimism tomorrow, but attention is reserved for CPI and retail sales on Friday.

Elsewhere around the globe, SocGen summarizes that we get Eurozone consumer and business confidence data today (it hit a 2 decade high), unemployment tomorrow the ECB ‘account’ on Thursday; The UK has a cabinet re-shuffle today, industrial production tomorrow and trade on Wednesday; Chinese CPI data are due Wednesday.

Data and events ahead

In Euro area, the unemployment rate is expected to decline to 8.7% (8.8% prev), and German GDP (Thurs) to rise 2.6% (prev 1.9%). In UK, we forecast Industrial Production on Wed to be1.8% (3.6%, prev) and Manufacturing Production to be 2.8% (3.9% prev). We also have Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting on Tues, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and Bank of England Credit Conditions & Bank Liabilities Surveys on Thurs.

In China, we have producer and consumer price index (Wed). Banks expects CPI inflation to inch up to 1.9% yoy in Dec from 1.7% in Nov. PPI inflation has likely eased to 4.8% in Dec from 5.8% in Nov, mainly due to a higher comparison base last year.

In US, core CPI is expected to grow 0.2% mom in Dec, leaving yoy inflation at 1.7% on Fri. Market consensus for retail sales is a 0.40% increase vs the previous release of 0.80%. We will hear from a number of Fed speakers, including NY Fed Pres Dudley on Thurs.

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid breaks down key events day by day:

Monday: November factory orders will be out as this note hits inboxes. Then we get a range of confidence indicators for the Eurozone, including the January Sentix investor confidence along with the December economic, consumer and business confidence stats. Elsewhere, the Eurozone’s retail sales and the UK’s December Halifax house price index are due. Over in the US, the November consumer credit numbers are also due. Onto other events, the Fed’s Williams and Rosengren speak at an Inflation targeting conference, while the Fed’s Bostic will also speak on monetary policy and the US economic outlook. Elsewhere, France’s President Macron arrives in China today for a three day state visit.
Tuesday: The November unemployment rate for the Eurozone and Italy are due, along with Germany’s IP. Then the trade and current account balance stats for France and Germany are also due. Over in the US, there …read more



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